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Prediction for CME (2024-07-24T17:36:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-24T17:36Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32172/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible to the west in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2 imagery. The source is related to an M3.0 flare and associated eruption from Active Region 13751 (S08W70) starting around 2024-07-24T17:10Z as seen in SDO AIA 131, 171, 193, 304 imagery. Field line movement is visible near the western limb in SDO AIA 171 and 193 at this time as well.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-28T05:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 10.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 4.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note: 
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 40725
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 25 Jul 2024, 1259UT
SIDC FORECAST
SOLAR FLARES  : M-class flares expected (probability >=50%) 
GEOMAGNETISM  : Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4) 
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet 
PREDICTIONS FOR 25 Jul 2024  10CM FLUX: 174 / AP: 014 PREDICTIONS FOR 26 Jul 2024  10CM FLUX: 173 / AP: 008 
PREDICTIONS FOR 27 Jul 2024  10CM FLUX: 172 / AP: 016

Coronal mass ejections: ...A CME was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 images around 17:30 UTC on Jul 24. This CME was associated with a M2.9 flare, which peaked at 17:21 UTC on Jul 24, produced by NOAA AR 3751 (S07 W71). Associted type II radio emissions were detected at 17:26 UTC during the flaring activity. It has an angular width of about 50 deg. It was followed by an another subsequent nearby CME which was first observed in the SOHO/LASCO C2 images around 18:30 UTC on Jul 24.
This CME was associated with a C6.8 flare, which peaked at 18:26 UTC on Jul 24, produced by NOAA AR 3759 (S07 W89). Associated type II radio emissions were detected at 18:26 UTC during the flaring activity. It has an angular width of about 80 deg and a projected speed of about 430 km/s (measured by CACTUS tool). It is strongly directed towards West but a glancing blow cannot be discarded on Jul 28-29...
Lead Time: 57.00 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-07-25T20:00Z
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